2019 Failed Coup in Gabon: Probabilities vs Cindynics

In a previous post, we described how going beyond probabilistic approaches enabled the mastery of propensities to emerge as the central concept of the Cindynics. On the other hand, even if it does not really describe the unreliability of probabilistic approaches, an article by Clayton Besaw and Jonathan Powell analysing the case of the failed coup in Libreville in 2019 advocates the need to combine qualitative and quantitative approaches: in doing so, they corroborate the contribution of the cindynic approach and the interest of the power analysis that can be achieved thanks to the most advanced cindynical models.