Energy Transition and the Perception of Africa

In response to global warming, most transition scenarios are based on wind power and photovoltaics. And for transport, on battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), except for heavy vehicles, commercial aviation and maritime transport, which require technologies based on hydrogen, electro-fuels or ammonia, at the cost of lower efficiency (around 30% losses when producing hydrogen by electrolysis, and 50% for fuel cells).

This problem of efficiency in the hydrogen sector has led a majority of actors to favor BEVs, and to reject the solution of fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) or hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (HICEVs). In addition, the European Union bans the sale of new CO2-emitting vehicles from 2035. Consequently, in the near future, the only light or commercial vehicles produced will be almost exclusively BEVs.

From an African point of view, this prospective highlights an issue described by the notion of cindynic uniformities. Historically, Cindynics have modeled dissonances as the differences between actors that are factors of vulnerability. The problem of uniformity as a source of danger leads us to extend the modeling of differences between actors, by describing cindynic uniformities as the absence of differences between actors that are factors of vulnerability.

In the case of Africa's energy transition, the threat of cindynic uniformity stems from an all-lithium prospective that leaves no room for hydrogen-powered vehicles, and stems from northern countries that probably don't have a realistic perception of the African continent, or consider the African market to be negligible.

Africa's insolation1 allows for the development of a photovoltaic industry under much more advantageous conditions than those in Europe: this enables the production of green hydrogen at low cost, which may have attracted European investors wishing to import this hydrogen. However, this stance has been criticized, with some actors pointing out that using African photovoltaic electricity to export hydrogen when a large proportion of the population still has no access to electricity is not an acceptable idea2 .

However, the problem of the continent's power grid, where it exists, does not seem to be perceived in the global north: except for a few countries such as Papua New Guinea, North Korea, Haiti, Yemen, Afghanistan and Syria, all electricity access problems are concentrated in Africa (Fig.1). A significant proportion of the African population has no access to electricity3  and for those city dwellers who do, tariffs are high and power cuts are frequent. A few weeks ago, Lomé was still experiencing power cuts on alternate days for the whole morning or afternoon, while tariffs continue to rise.

This situation precludes the use of BEVs, and assuming that local electricity production, e.g. photovoltaic, increases significantly, the power grid would still have to be expanded to reach the entire population. On the scale of this continent, this would require gigantic efforts and investments, making it unrealistic to develop a grid compatible with widespread use of BEVs by 2050. By way of comparison, Germany, with a surface area of some 360,000 km², is already struggling to modernize its existing grid to bring renewable electricity, produced mainly in the north, to the south of its territory: the African continent, with its embryonic grid, is 30 million km² in size.

Unless we want to deprive Africa of transport, a prospective uniformizing the use of BEVs is unrealistic. In Africa, the hydrogen sector, seems the only conceivable solution, even with the associated losses in efficiency: Africa can develop a high-performance, low-cost hydrogen sector, and hydrogen can be transported to existing gas stations. Although hydrogen-powered vehicles have been disparaged for some time, opinions are beginning to change: Japanese automakers have already produced a hydrogen-powered internal combustion engine (HICE) and Japan is developing the nuclear hydrogen sector (red hydrogen).

To achieve Net Zero, the IEA recommends4 : "In 2050, cars on the road worldwide run on electricity or fuel cells. Low emissions fuels are essential where energy needs cannot easily or economically be met by electricity". This suggests a significant reinforcement of policies in support of the development of the hydrogen sector, be it red, pink or green.

Figure 1: Access to electricity in 2023